15 January 2008
Crisis
Posted by Carleton Schade under: Energy; Overshoot; Technology .
Since civilization began some 9,000 years ago, humanity’s impact on the environment has been accelerating by an auto-catalytic process of the mutually-reinforcing variables Surplus, Innovation and Population. One can think of Surplus as wealth, or the material and energy flows through our lives. Innovation, although encompassing knowledge and technology, refers to the mental energy, individually and collectively. Population stands as a multiplier effect in all its complexity. Through a slightly different lens, surplus represents the material, population represents the life force, and innovation refers to consciousness.
An inflection point in the J-curves of these variables occurred around 1950, so that from that point on, every factor worth measuring has exhibited a troubling skyward trajectory.
As in all natural systems, the environment’s responses (in this instance global warming, dwindling land, water, fossil fuels and wild animals, etc.,) signals a resistance to present behaviors. Awareness of these signals and their possible meanings has diffused so thoroughly through Civilization that even the power elite’s staunchest apologists (such as president George W. Bush) must publicly acknowledge them. We are likely approaching a crisis for the Civilization project. In all its uses (general, medical, psychological), crisis is the term used to indicate a turning point for the system in question, when it becomes clear whether the system will flourish or decline.
Our Environmental Impact is caused by the multiplier effect of Population, Consumption and the Resources/Wastes per amount of Consumption. Globally, voluntary reductions in either population or consumption are considered unlikely. Therefore, most analysts today suggest that Civilization’s only response to its predicament revolves around the Resources/Waste factor, and this comes down to a reliance on human ingenuity to power us through: finding new resources, substituting new materials, innovating efficiency. Let us wish us all, Good Luck.
One Comment so far...
Shirley Goldsmith Says:
20 January 2008 at 4:24 pm.
As your words ring so true, might I be a convert!!!!!!